Unemployment Figures and their Effect on Presidential Reelections

I was just looking at US unemployment figures going back to 1976 and found that, with only one exception in that time frame, US Presidents who end their first terms with worse national unemployment figures than at the beginning of their terms are not reelected. The fact that George W. Bush was reelected despite reverses in national unemployment numbers in 2004 can be explained because the nation was still reeling from the 9/11 attacks, American approval for the invastion of Iraq not having passed 50% until 2004 which was not quite in time to sway the election against him at that time although had the election occured even one year later it almost certainly would have been a different story. Similarly, there is only one instance of a President not being reelected in that time frame despite improving unemployment figures. Jimmy Carter’s reelection bid was doomed both by the abject failure of his attempts to free the 52 Americans who were held hostage in Iran as well as double digit inflation rates. Except for these two anomalies, the reelection prospects for US Presidentsin the past 30 years has been directly tied to changes in the unemployment figures during their first terms.

In light of this dynamic, unless national unemployment figures are to take a dramatic turn in the next 12 months, the reelection prospects of President Obama are dead in the water. Even the killing of Osama Bin Laden during the current term will not be enough to help, both because people widely credit Bin Laden’s death to the members of the US military rather than to the Presidentand because the event did not occur close enough to the election to remain fresh in the minds of the electorate. Add to that that Obama squandered all of his political clout on the passage of universal health care which is as reviled by the right as it seems to be forgotten by the left and you have now the most unelectable incumbant President since Jimmy Carter. I have never felt this much certainty about an election in my life and I don’t think that even a late breaking scandal on the part of the eventual republican nominee would be enough to counfound fate. And lest anyone think I’m gloating at this development, I’m not certain that anyone on the repulican side can right what’s wrong with America in a timely fashion either. At this point I think it would necessitate a shovel, directions to Reagan’s grave, and extremely powerful smelling salts.

3 Responses to “Unemployment Figures and their Effect on Presidential Reelections”

  1. Phelps says:

    The question is always, “are you better off now than four years ago?” For this election, it is a resounding no. There isn’t time for him to turn it around now, so he’s toast.

  2. Citizen Quasar says:

    I was going to say, “We all thought you were dead, sir.” But then you had to throw that thing in about them staging Osama bin-dead-along-time (over ten years according to Benazir Bhutto, herself shot in the back). Then there’s this: http://www.drjudywood.com/ and this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VebOTc-7shU and Alan Watt and Alex Jones thrown in.

    But FAR be it from the Mexigogue and the Phelps to break out of the left-right/liberal-conservative paradigm and think outside the coffin…er…box.

    Actually, I was just passing through looking to find the identity of the lady in the picture on your last post as I was try to see if she is the one pictured with Joan Jett (That was Miley Cyrus.) while I was searching for the Joan Jett song lyrics “Where are all my heroes? They seem to disappear.” ..to append that to my comment here: http://gizadeathstar.com/2011/12/empire-or-republic-a-crossroads/ SLASH: Scroll-down.

    Shhh:Go back to sleep.Shhh:Go back to sleep.Shhh:Go back to sleep.Shhh:Go back to sleep…….

  3. mexi says:

    Your 9-11 conspiracy theories bore me. Osama Bin Laden declared a jihaad against the United States in 1997. Subsequent to that, they bombed the American Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania and they bombed the USS Cole. Muslim extremists of that sort would never require or even accept the help of the Bush administration in carrying out the September 11th attacks. In fact, Bin Laden was such a strict idealogue he wouldn’t have trusted anyone other than Muslim radicals with help in such an endeavor. This would even exclude teaming up with people like Sadaam Hussein and Khadaffi because as leaders of predominantly Muslim countries who applied anything other than Sharia law he would have considered the apostates. The most he would have done would have been to negotiate with these type of people for supplies and safe haven, but he certainly would not have let even let these rogue leaders in on his plan, much less would have trusted a non Muslim like George Dubya. The concept is beyond ridiculous and evinces a gross misunderstanding of the mentality of Islamic extremists. In fact, I doubt that even moderate Muslims would be willing to team up with the Bush admistration even in something as simple as hitting Jews in the face with coconut cream pies. Something like that would be liable to get a mujadid’s Muslim card pulled.

    Or perhaps you think the Bush administration knew the exact details of the plan and allowed it to happen while supplying help in the way of wiring the twin towers for explosion. This also makes no sense because in order to believe this we would have to believe that the Bush administration would have thought that slamming some planes into the twin towers would not have made Americans very mad provided that the buildings had not come down and also that Bush would have somehow been certain that Al Qaeda was going to go through with and successfully pull off the hijackings that day, all without actually coordinating with them. That type of supension of disbelief makes even the Die Hard movies seem believable. You may peddle your wares where you want but don’t be surprised when people don’t buy them.

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